Tuesday, November 04, 2008

More details from the election-eve NBC/WSJ poll

One final look at the pre-election polls, which will very soon be overtaken by history. It may be illuminating to refer back to them in retrospect.

I referred in a previous post to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which showed Obama and McCain essentially tied back in early September and now show Obama with a lead of 8 percentage points.

Some of the more specific results are given below. As a start, I would note these findings about the Palin Effect:
Believe Palin is qualified? 55% no, 40% yes

Palin favorables: 38% positive, 47% negative.
Palin's initial feel-good aura dissipated pretty quickly, and there is every reason to believe that she turned out to be a major liability for McCain's campaign.

And please note which of the prominent issues favors McCain ... and which do not:
On issues: Obama +39 on health care, +21 on economy, +14 on taxes. McCain +5 on Iraq.
If it were up to me, I would fiddle with some of those spreads. But, overall, these figures might lead us to conclude that the voters aren't so dumb. (So much for Joe the Plumber.)

19% of respondents said that Powell's endorsement made them "more likely to vote for Obama" (vs. 4% "less inclined"). This strikes me as a big deal.

And 52% of Obama's supporters described themselves as "excited" by his candidacy, vs. 26% of McCain's. I suspect that, in retrospect, that will turn out to have been one of the crucial factors of this whole campaign.

Yours for democracy,
Jeff Weintraub
==============================
Time On-Line (The Page)
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
More from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
By Mark Halperin

Overall: Obama 52, McCain 42.

Believe Palin is qualified? 55% no, 40% yes

Palin favorables: 38% positive, 47% negative.

Concerned McCain will continue Bush policies: 23%

Concerned Obama is too inexperienced: 23%

Race an important factor? 8% yes. Of those: 4% less likely to vote for Obama, 2% more likely.

Age an important factor? 22% yes. Of those: 18% less likely to vote for McCain.

Powell endorsement's impact: 77% no difference, 19% more inclined to vote for Obama, 4% less inclined.

On issues: Obama +39 on health care, +21 on economy, +14 on taxes. McCain +5 on Iraq.

On traits: Obama +30 on hope and optimism, +20 on right temperment. McCain +4 on stronger leader.

Obama's voter enthusiasm: excited 52%, satisfied 33%

McCain's voter enthusiasm: excited 26%, satisfied 34%

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